28 March 2013
The International Crisis Group (ICG), in its report released today mapped out six possible forms an eventual transition may take in the samll East African nation, Eritrea by identifies the main risks and opportunities. The Report discussing the possible scenarios of a Post-Isaias Eritrea begins by asserting “Change is in the air in Eritrea”.
“There is an urgent need to pursue stability in Eritrea. Events in the last twelve months indicate growing discontent inside its tightly controlled regime, as well as deepening political and social divisions”, says Comfort Ero, Crisis Group’s Africa Program Director as to the Press Release.
ICG’s press release states “It is difficult to predict what an eventually post-Isaias Eritrea will look like: after and in spite of 21 years of forceful nation-building, fault lines, especially of ethnicity, region and religion, are still there. The opposition is mainly in the diaspora, divided and mostly out of touch with both potential domestic constituencies and the young people who have been fleeing in large numbers for years and who crowd refugee camps. Since the state lacks any institutional mechanisms for peaceful transfer of power or even a clearly anointed successor, instability is to be expected, with the army the likely arbiter of who will rule next.”
The Report also advises “Specific attention should be paid to new, younger leaders emerging outside Eritrea, including in refugee camps. ”
To read the full Report click on Eritrea: Scenarios for Future Transition.